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Ahmed
A local economics professor said that though the State of Oklahoma may benefit from higher oil prices, average Oklahomans will be hurt financially by the increase.
“The average consumers disposable income falls with an increase in gas prices because we spend money on gas,” said Syed Ahmed, director of the Bill W. Burgess Jr. Business Research Center & Professor of Economics at Cameron University. “We will have to allocate more of our income to gas so there will be a substitution effect.”
Ahmed compares the current situation with the 1970s oil embargo during the Arab-Israeli war; however, he stopped short of predicting the kind of recession that was brought about during that period.
“I do not think we will go to a recession because our economy was very robust in recent months,” Ahmed said. “I do not foresee a recession, but still there is a possibility.”
The challenge, according to Ahmed, is that the inflation America is experiencing is a product of demand. If demand falls, as Ahmed suspects it might with rising oil prices, then inflation slows. However, rising prices in domestic production due to the cost in oil could negate any offsets from lowered demand.
Ahmed does not believe that the sanctions against Russia will have an immediate effect — if they have any effect at all.
“Any sanctions would take a really long time to have the effect they are intended for,” Ahmed said. “I think Putin put these sanctions into his calculus during his decision making. I am not very hopeful about the fallout from these sanctions. Russia will find other markets to export to.”
While Ahmed is hopeful prices will eventually fall, he said he could not be sure when that might happen.
“I wish I had the crystal ball, but I don’t know,” Ahmed said, “ But I do think even if prices continue to go up that Middle Eastern oil companies will step up their production and eventually it will start to fall.”
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